Daily-Dose

Contents

From New Yorker

From Vox

The Russians are gaining territory along the lines around the city of Bakhmut, which has been in the news a lot because it has become a focal point for both sides. Strategically, it’s neither negligible nor significant. It allows access to larger cities farther west in the Donbas, such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which are more important.

Bakhmut has huge symbolic significance for both sides. The Russians have been unable to take it for several months, and both sides have pushed more and more forces into the area. Ukraine is determined to hold it, just to deny the Russians the PR victory of saying that they captured it.

Michael Bluhm

What comes next?

Robert Hamilton

I don’t know. The Russian Defense Ministry had a partial mobilization of 300,000 persons last summer. A lot of reports say the number of recruits was closer to 180,000 to 200,000. We don’t know how many of them have been sent to Ukraine.

For the follow-up attacks, you need mobile forces: tanks, armored personnel carriers, and mobile artillery. But they lack leadership. So many capable Russian military leaders have been killed that there are not a lot of capable people with combat experience who can lead these units.

I don’t know how Russia is going to follow up these gains with armored and mechanized maneuver forces. I don’t see the potential for the Russians to be able to do that on a large scale.

Michael Bluhm

Ever since Russia performed so poorly at the start of the war, there has been a lot of reporting about the weak state of the Russian military. How would you evaluate its condition now?

Robert Hamilton

That’s a great question. The Russian military has probably lost the capability to do a combined-arms, operational-maneuver offensive — that means armored and mechanized forces exploiting a breakthrough, supported by infantry, reconnaissance to the front and to the flanks, and long-range artillery fire to reduce enemy points of strength before the armored and mechanized forces hit.

They weren’t able to do that in the beginning of the war, but the Russian military is learning through this war. It has learned how to do certain things, but I don’t think a combined-arms offensive maneuver is one of them.

You have to have knowledge of how to fight, equipment, soldiers, leaders, and logistics. Logistics is a massive shortcoming of the Russians. It has been since the start of the war. They’re very tied to railroads. They’re heavily dependent on artillery, which requires a massive amount of cargo-carrying capacity because artillery shells take up a lot of room.

All this means that they don’t have the capacity to logistically support a big offensive breakthrough, even if they had the capability in knowledge, equipment, and leadership. They couldn’t logistically support a drive deep into Ukraine. It’s impossible.

Michael Bluhm

At the beginning of the war, the West implemented stringent economic sanctions on Russia. Russia has still been able to sell oil and natural gas, though at lower volumes than before the war. How are the problems in Russia’s economy affecting its ability to fight the war?

Robert Hamilton

The Russian economy has proven to be a little more sanctions-proof and resilient than a lot of people expected.

The sanctions impacted the military most on the very high-end semiconductor chips required for precision weapons. Before the sanctions, Russia had been able to get these chips. But those sanctions appear to be airtight. No one but Taiwan, the Netherlands, and the US can make those chips.

As the Russians draw down their stocks of precision long-range missiles, they’re not able to replenish them. They could use lower-end semiconductors, but then the weapon is not as precise. For months, the Russians have been using S300 surface-to-air missiles in surface-to-surface mode, which means they’re using missiles meant to knock down airplanes to attack ground targets because they’re running out of precision surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.

Michael Bluhm

What are Putin’s goals for the offensive?

Robert Hamilton

For his domestic population, I think Putin would consider victory to be Russian control of all four provinces that he annexed last summer. I don’t know if that ends the war for him. Given how poorly the Russian military has performed to this point, I think that would count as something Putin could go back to the Russian people with and call a victory.

Many reports say that Putin has ordered Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces by the spring. What they’re doing on the ground implies that they have some objective of moving the lines to the administrative borders of those two regions. Then they can declare a success in the war, if not victory.

Michael Bluhm

Are there other outcomes that Putin could sell as a win?

Robert Hamilton

Capturing Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, in central Donbas. In 2014, those two cities were briefly under Russian separatist control. The Ukrainian military then came in and liberated them. Those two cities are important — they have a lot more military-strategic importance than Bakhmut. They’re bigger, and they’re more important symbolically.

Michael Bluhm

What is the condition of the Ukrainian military?

Robert Hamilton

One of the most interesting things about this war is we have a better understanding of the state of the Russian military now than we do of the state of the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainians have been very tight-lipped with their operational security. They tell us only what we need to know to help them. We don’t have a good understanding of their casualty rates.

The leadership style of Ukrainian armed forces surprised a lot of people. It was able to fight in a decentralized, less hierarchical model, where initiative is rewarded and small-unit leaders understand their commander’s intent and make decisions without asking for permission to take every step.

The Ukrainian military is battered, but its morale is unbroken, and its leadership is still mostly alive and very effective. They captured much Russian equipment early in the war; they don’t have a problem with the amount of equipment. Western equipment, then, has been important to Ukraine not in terms of numbers but in raising their capabilities.

Ukraine is in a better position with equipment than Russia — and will be in a better position as Western equipment continues to arrive.

Michael Bluhm

What are Ukraine’s goals in the short term?

Robert Hamilton

There’s no appetite for a diplomatic settlement. They believe that the deal they’ll get through fighting is better than the deal they’ll get through negotiation.

Ukrainians think — correctly, in my view — that they’re having success on the battlefield, and more Western aid and equipment is coming. What’s the point of giving Putin a diplomatic victory now when you’re more likely to have greater success later through military means?

Michael Bluhm

There has been some public debate about Ukraine’s strategy for responding to Russia’s offensive. Some say Ukraine should be patient, try to let Russia wear itself out attacking, and then counter-attack. Others say Ukraine should push back the Russians now as strongly as they can. What do you think they will do, and what do you think they should do?

Robert Hamilton

The former option is likelier and wiser. The Russians are expending a lot of manpower and resources on attacks that are gaining tens to hundreds of meters of front-line territory a day.

Russia is expending a lot of energy and resources — and losing a lot of capability in this grinding, attritional offensive underway now. I think they should let Russia continue to expend energy, capability, and resources in ways that don’t do the Ukrainian military a whole lot of damage in operational or strategic capability.

The Ukrainians may end up having to abandon Bakhmut. They’ll fall back to their defensive line around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. They’re well dug in there. Their military headquarters were there before the war. They’ve been fighting there since 2014; they know the area very well.

It’s going to be months before the capabilities that the West is offering are integrated into the Ukrainian forces. Their moment of peak capability will come in the mid to late summer, which is a good time for an offensive. The Russians may expend so many resources that they’ll be incapable of further decisive offensive operations right when the Ukrainians reach the peak of their capability.

Michael Bluhm

What do you see as the most likely outcomes of the Russian offensive?

Robert Hamilton

The most likely scenario is the Russian offensive will continue in a similar fashion to these last two weeks. It may gain more ground, but I don’t see a massive breakthrough where Ukrainian lines dissolve and the Russians drive deep into central Ukraine. I don’t think they have the capacity to do it.

The attritional offensive will stall out, and then you’re likely to see a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer or early fall that won’t have the capability to end the war. Unless the Russian army dissolves and leaves the battlefield, I don’t think the Ukrainians have the capability to end the war by regaining all Ukrainian territory inside its internationally recognized borders.

Michael Bluhm is a senior editor at the Signal. He was previously the managing editor at the Open Markets Institute and a writer and editor for the Daily Star in Beirut.

Fetterman joins lawmakers, including Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), and former Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA), in candidly addressing mental health. Smith previously spoke about her own experiences with depression in college and as a parent, emphasizing that treatment should be destigmatized and demystified.

Fetterman is one of the only senators in recent years to disclose that he’s undergoing treatment for depression. Previously, Missouri Sen. Thomas Eagleton revealed that he was hospitalized for clinical depression in the 1970s and was dropped from Democratic candidate George McGovern’s presidential ticket as a result, a decision McGovern said he regrets.

“Seeking help when you need it is a sign of strength, not weakness, something that John is demonstrating for all of us,” Smith wrote in a statement on Twitter.

Fetterman’s disclosure contributes to less stigma around mental health

Fetterman’s willingness to talk about treatment is notable, given the degree of vulnerability that involves, and the stigma that has surrounded mental health in the past. In a 2022 poll from CNN and the Kaiser Family Foundation, 35 percent of people said they were not too comfortable talking about their mental health with family and friends, and 14 percent of those respondents cited stigma as one of the reasons holding them back.

Fetterman’s statement, and others like it, are among those that have helped contribute to an ongoing cultural shift. A 2018 survey from the American Psychological Association found that Americans were becoming more open about mental health, with 87 percent of people agreeing that having a mental health disorder was not something to be ashamed of.

His decision to speak openly about mental health could also serve as a model for others, experts note.

“We know that men don’t always reach out when they need help,” says Katie Lee, a communications director with the advocacy group Mental Health America. “When you do have someone that looks like you reaching out, that gives you the push to reach out yourself.”

A 2019 study from the National Institute of Health previously found that men, in particular, have been less likely to seek out mental health treatment due to societal expectations. Fetterman — a politician famously known for projecting more of a tough-guy image with his tattoos and hoodies — could help dismantle stereotypes and preconceived notions that people may have.

Fetterman’s decision to address his mental health challenges also comes as many people across the country are grappling with getting care and treatment themselves following the immense strain of the pandemic. “As much as we live in a culture that wants to move on and pretend that everything’s fine, we’re still seeing the health impact of Covid, the mental health impact and the economic impact,” says Lakshmin. According to the World Health Organization, the pandemic has prompted a 25 percent uptick in depression and anxiety worldwide.

His willingness to talk about this issue could demonstrate to others dealing with their own experiences that lawmakers have an understanding of what they’re going through — and serve as a reminder of just how common depression is. Over 17 million adults, or 7 percent of the adult population, are affected by a major depressive disorder, according to the Depression and Bipolar Support Alliance.

“Talking about it now lets you know you’re not alone,” says Lee.

From The Hindu: Sports

From The Hindu: National News

From BBC: Europe

From Ars Technica

From Jokes Subreddit