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Putin’s new offensive is now underway. Can Ukraine withstand the Russian assault?
The war in Ukraine may be entering a critical new phase with the launch of a major offensive by Vladimir Putin’s armies.
For weeks, reports from the ground have been spreading about an imminent Russian offensive, as Moscow shipped troops and materiel to Ukraine. And in the past few days, fighting has intensified, as Putin’s forces have launched a wave of attacks on the ground and in the air in the hope of breaking through Ukrainian lines.
What do we know about the offensive so far? What are Russia’s plans and goals? How strong are the countries’ respective militaries now? And what does this push from Russia mean as the war approaches its first anniversary?
To answer these questions and others, I spoke with Robert Hamilton, a research professor at the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Hamilton is a retired colonel and 30-year veteran of the US Army, and he now analyzes conflict and security issues in the former Soviet Union and the Balkans.
A transcript of our conversation follows, edited for length and clarity.
Where do things stand on the ground in Ukraine now?
We’ve been in a period of stalemate since early fall. There haven’t been dramatic territorial gains by either side.
Offensive maneuvers get more difficult in the late fall when the rains come, and things repeatedly freeze and thaw. The ground and the roads get hard to maneuver on.
The lines have moved hundreds of meters in one direction or another, mostly in the central Donbas region, which includes the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
There’s been very little movement in the north on the Kharkiv front or in the south around Kherson since the big Ukrainian territorial gains last fall in the north and smaller but significant gains in the south.
Does either side have the upper hand?
I don’t think either side has the upper hand. I’m not sure either side has the capacity to achieve a military victory in the near or medium term — months and maybe even a couple years. It’s unlikely that either side can achieve a conventional military victory and control all of Ukraine inside its internationally recognized borders.
Achieving military victory requires the other side to agree that you have achieved a military victory and stop fighting. In this war, both sides have ways to continue fighting, even if they’re defeated conventionally. If the Russians were able to win conventionally, for instance, you would see an insurgency break out that the Russians would struggle to handle. If the Ukrainians were able to win, then the Russians could undertake airstrikes and ballistic-missile strikes. They have nuclear capability.
We’ve entered a period where things are not frozen, but neither side is likely to have the kind of victory that would put the end of the war within sight.
What’s happening with the Russian offensive?
The big Russian winter offensive that Ukrainians have been warning about has been underway for about two weeks.
This is partially if not largely the Wagner Group doing this — the Russian mercenary organization that recruited extensively from Russian prisons last summer and fall. They’re using these former prisoners on the front lines in the central Donbas in human-wave attacks. They’re poorly trained, poorly armed, and poorly led — if they’re led at all — and they’re pushed forward to the Ukrainian lines. And the Ukrainians are mowing these guys down.
Wagner is using these human-wave attacks to find the stronger and weaker points in the Ukrainian lines. Then the Russian army — again, the Wagner group, mostly — is sending in better-trained, better-equipped, and better-led Wagner forces to exploit the weaker areas.
It’s working — but very slowly and at an incredibly high cost. Russian casualty figures are around 5,000 a week. Those casualty figures can’t be sustainable over the long term. It seems like these human-wave attacks are the first stage of the big Russian winter offensive.
The Russians are gaining tens to hundreds of meters a day along the front line in the central part of the Donbas region, but I don’t see that it could lead to a major breakthrough, and I don’t see that it’s sustainable over the long term.
Where exactly is the offensive taking place?
It looks like it’s confined to that central part of the Donbas. There was some talk very early in the winter that there would be another drive on Kyiv out of Belarus. I’ve seen nothing that points to that. It comes down to what the Russians are capable of.
#Ukraine likely still has a window of opportunity to initiate large-scale counteroffensives over the next few months. Its ability to do so likely rests heavily on the speed and scale at which the West provides it the necessary materiel, particularly tanks & armored vehicles. https://t.co/PEXljB8XXw
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 16, 2023
The Russians are gaining territory along the lines around the city of Bakhmut, which has been in the news a lot because it has become a focal point for both sides. Strategically, it’s neither negligible nor significant. It allows access to larger cities farther west in the Donbas, such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which are more important.
Bakhmut has huge symbolic significance for both sides. The Russians have been unable to take it for several months, and both sides have pushed more and more forces into the area. Ukraine is determined to hold it, just to deny the Russians the PR victory of saying that they captured it.
What comes next?
I don’t know. The Russian Defense Ministry had a partial mobilization of 300,000 persons last summer. A lot of reports say the number of recruits was closer to 180,000 to 200,000. We don’t know how many of them have been sent to Ukraine.
For the follow-up attacks, you need mobile forces: tanks, armored personnel carriers, and mobile artillery. But they lack leadership. So many capable Russian military leaders have been killed that there are not a lot of capable people with combat experience who can lead these units.
I don’t know how Russia is going to follow up these gains with armored and mechanized maneuver forces. I don’t see the potential for the Russians to be able to do that on a large scale.
Ever since Russia performed so poorly at the start of the war, there has been a lot of reporting about the weak state of the Russian military. How would you evaluate its condition now?
That’s a great question. The Russian military has probably lost the capability to do a combined-arms, operational-maneuver offensive — that means armored and mechanized forces exploiting a breakthrough, supported by infantry, reconnaissance to the front and to the flanks, and long-range artillery fire to reduce enemy points of strength before the armored and mechanized forces hit.
They weren’t able to do that in the beginning of the war, but the Russian military is learning through this war. It has learned how to do certain things, but I don’t think a combined-arms offensive maneuver is one of them.
You have to have knowledge of how to fight, equipment, soldiers, leaders, and logistics. Logistics is a massive shortcoming of the Russians. It has been since the start of the war. They’re very tied to railroads. They’re heavily dependent on artillery, which requires a massive amount of cargo-carrying capacity because artillery shells take up a lot of room.
All this means that they don’t have the capacity to logistically support a big offensive breakthrough, even if they had the capability in knowledge, equipment, and leadership. They couldn’t logistically support a drive deep into Ukraine. It’s impossible.
At the beginning of the war, the West implemented stringent economic sanctions on Russia. Russia has still been able to sell oil and natural gas, though at lower volumes than before the war. How are the problems in Russia’s economy affecting its ability to fight the war?
The Russian economy has proven to be a little more sanctions-proof and resilient than a lot of people expected.
The sanctions impacted the military most on the very high-end semiconductor chips required for precision weapons. Before the sanctions, Russia had been able to get these chips. But those sanctions appear to be airtight. No one but Taiwan, the Netherlands, and the US can make those chips.
As the Russians draw down their stocks of precision long-range missiles, they’re not able to replenish them. They could use lower-end semiconductors, but then the weapon is not as precise. For months, the Russians have been using S300 surface-to-air missiles in surface-to-surface mode, which means they’re using missiles meant to knock down airplanes to attack ground targets because they’re running out of precision surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.
What are Putin’s goals for the offensive?
For his domestic population, I think Putin would consider victory to be Russian control of all four provinces that he annexed last summer. I don’t know if that ends the war for him. Given how poorly the Russian military has performed to this point, I think that would count as something Putin could go back to the Russian people with and call a victory.
Many reports say that Putin has ordered Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces by the spring. What they’re doing on the ground implies that they have some objective of moving the lines to the administrative borders of those two regions. Then they can declare a success in the war, if not victory.
Are there other outcomes that Putin could sell as a win?
Capturing Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, in central Donbas. In 2014, those two cities were briefly under Russian separatist control. The Ukrainian military then came in and liberated them. Those two cities are important — they have a lot more military-strategic importance than Bakhmut. They’re bigger, and they’re more important symbolically.
What is the condition of the Ukrainian military?
One of the most interesting things about this war is we have a better understanding of the state of the Russian military now than we do of the state of the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainians have been very tight-lipped with their operational security. They tell us only what we need to know to help them. We don’t have a good understanding of their casualty rates.
The leadership style of Ukrainian armed forces surprised a lot of people. It was able to fight in a decentralized, less hierarchical model, where initiative is rewarded and small-unit leaders understand their commander’s intent and make decisions without asking for permission to take every step.
The Ukrainian military is battered, but its morale is unbroken, and its leadership is still mostly alive and very effective. They captured much Russian equipment early in the war; they don’t have a problem with the amount of equipment. Western equipment, then, has been important to Ukraine not in terms of numbers but in raising their capabilities.
Ukraine is in a better position with equipment than Russia — and will be in a better position as Western equipment continues to arrive.
What are Ukraine’s goals in the short term?
There’s no appetite for a diplomatic settlement. They believe that the deal they’ll get through fighting is better than the deal they’ll get through negotiation.
Ukrainians think — correctly, in my view — that they’re having success on the battlefield, and more Western aid and equipment is coming. What’s the point of giving Putin a diplomatic victory now when you’re more likely to have greater success later through military means?
There has been some public debate about Ukraine’s strategy for responding to Russia’s offensive. Some say Ukraine should be patient, try to let Russia wear itself out attacking, and then counter-attack. Others say Ukraine should push back the Russians now as strongly as they can. What do you think they will do, and what do you think they should do?
The former option is likelier and wiser. The Russians are expending a lot of manpower and resources on attacks that are gaining tens to hundreds of meters of front-line territory a day.
Russia is expending a lot of energy and resources — and losing a lot of capability in this grinding, attritional offensive underway now. I think they should let Russia continue to expend energy, capability, and resources in ways that don’t do the Ukrainian military a whole lot of damage in operational or strategic capability.
The Ukrainians may end up having to abandon Bakhmut. They’ll fall back to their defensive line around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. They’re well dug in there. Their military headquarters were there before the war. They’ve been fighting there since 2014; they know the area very well.
It’s going to be months before the capabilities that the West is offering are integrated into the Ukrainian forces. Their moment of peak capability will come in the mid to late summer, which is a good time for an offensive. The Russians may expend so many resources that they’ll be incapable of further decisive offensive operations right when the Ukrainians reach the peak of their capability.
What do you see as the most likely outcomes of the Russian offensive?
The most likely scenario is the Russian offensive will continue in a similar fashion to these last two weeks. It may gain more ground, but I don’t see a massive breakthrough where Ukrainian lines dissolve and the Russians drive deep into central Ukraine. I don’t think they have the capacity to do it.
The attritional offensive will stall out, and then you’re likely to see a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer or early fall that won’t have the capability to end the war. Unless the Russian army dissolves and leaves the battlefield, I don’t think the Ukrainians have the capability to end the war by regaining all Ukrainian territory inside its internationally recognized borders.
Michael Bluhm is a senior editor at the Signal. He was previously the managing editor at the Open Markets Institute and a writer and editor for the Daily Star in Beirut.
Conflict is avoidable, but cooperation is scant.
The balloon episode and the ensuing UFO drama have captured America’s attention perhaps because it’s such a caricature of the new Cold War we’re barreling toward.
The image of a fighter jet shooting down a giant balloon over the East Coast, the first kill of the F-22: It would be comical if it hadn’t been quickly used in hawkish posturing around China that, in turn, further strained the relationship with a nuclear power. Republicans tapped into the fears surrounding China’s rising power to attack President Joe Biden. Secretary of State Tony Blinken canceled a previously planned trip to Beijing. China, meanwhile, hasn’t been taking America’s calls.
Two weeks after we all started googling UFOs, Biden delivered a surprise speech about the balloon. He said the US seeks “competition not conflict with China. We’re not looking for a new Cold War.” He echoed a message conveyed in the State of the Union and his first in-person meeting with Xi as president.
The attempt at de-escalation is reassuring. But I wished he would have stated more clearly that the balloon episode shouldn’t mark a turning point in US-China relations. The takeaway from leading China experts I’ve heard from this week is that war with China is not inevitable, even if tensions feel as high as ever. But more needs to be done now to put guard rails on the fraught relationship between the two countries so that the next unidentified flying object doesn’t lead to unintended conflict.
It’s a good sign that Biden expressed his willingness to speak with Xi to deconflict, but the regular channels of communication between the two countries are too limited; the framework of competition could get so overheated that it leads to conflict.
“We haven’t identified anything that would anchor the relationship and provide it with some form or way to deal with various different difficult issues that we might face,” China analyst Bonny Lin told members of the Council on Foreign Relations. “I am worried about where the state of the relationship is, but I guess I wouldn’t quite say we’re at a crisis point yet.”
We’re still learning about the adrift balloon and errant UFOs. Biden said they were likely “tied to private companies, recreation, or research institutions,” and got caught up in the US’s heightened attention to the skies.
Importantly, a number of China experts say this moment doesn’t have to be a turning point in relations between Washington and Beijing.
For one, everyone knows that nations spy on other nations. And the Washington Post’s reporting suggests that this balloon might have just gotten blown off course. Above all, China experts seem unfazed because of the brazen examples of China’s espionage on American companies and universities over the years.
The US remains the unrivaled military power in the world. The balloon technologies now being discussed with apprehension on TV are almost certainly already in the hands of the American military. While US weapons and military personnel are one way to deter the prospect of China aggression, an accelerated arms race and military buildups can lead to a risky situation.
Still, the balloon incursion may have been inevitable in the long run. Balloons are useful, it turns out, and have a lot of technological advantages: They can hover over certain areas for a long period, and since they are not as high as satellites, can gather ultra-detailed information — and the sky is full of them.
US intelligence agencies are increasingly focused on the technological advances that such aerial objects provide. Edward Ge is the CEO of the balloon startup Stratodyne that has received funding from the US military and intelligence agencies. “The defense industry has always been interested in balloons,” he told me, “using balloons in everything from border-security use cases to monitoring sites in Iraq like forward operating posts, and even surveillance over cities as well.”
While the balloon itself shouldn’t lead to conflict, there’s a real risk that seeing everything through the prism of conflict with China could very well lead to it.
The intense anxiety on cable news around the balloon resonates because there are serious challenges around China’s rapid development of technologies. “China is very much advancing in the space domain,” says Yool Kim, a space policy expert at the Rand Corporation. “This is yet another means for them to try to project power and exploit one of these less-governed domains.”
The biggest threat might be unintended consequences and accidental escalation. “It seemed like there was a disconnect between the military’s assessment and how the American populace reacted,” Adam Chitwood, a retired Air Force officer who has worked extensively in Asia, told me. “Tit-for-tat type of things don’t really get anyone very far.”
Meanwhile, a new constituency has emerged that is preparing for conflict with China with knock-on effects throughout Washington and the world. Venture investments in military tech have jumped from $100 million in 2020 to more than $7 billion. Silicon Valley appears to be readying for war with China. “Geopolitical events,” as one venture capitalist euphemistically put it in December, have added urgency to such investments. It’s why one prominent Washington consulting firm that focuses on national security has expanded its China practice. Leading voices who represent the military contracting industry are using the prospect of a war with China as impetus for investing more in US weapons. (We know that many of those who inflate the China threat on TV also hold jobs in industries like military contracting that would benefit from threat inflation.)
“Rivalry empowers fringe, extremist, paranoiac reactionaries on all sides. It benefits grifters, it benefits ethno-nationalists, it benefits militarists. It doesn’t benefit democracy,” says scholar Van Jackson, the author of Pacific Power Paradox: American Statecraft and the Fate of the Asian Peace. “We’re just on a poisonous track.”
And attempts at cooperation are few and far between.
When Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman spoke at length this week at the Brookings Institution on the US approach to China, she emphasized the pillars of a strategy that consist of “align, invest, compete” in response to China’s rise. On the panel, analyst Patricia Kim posed a smart question to the deputy secretary: “What does success look like? How do we know when we’ve succeeded in this competition with China?”
In response, Sherman emphasized the importance of beating out China on advanced technologies and in the cyber realm by building up US supply chains and protecting rare-earth minerals. The problem is, there are plenty of elements of this policy that just seem downright Cold War-ish. Sherman noted that the State Department, for example, established a new unit in December called China House, whose name is a throwback to another era and evokes the title of a book by legendary spy novelist John Le Carre.
Sherman’s long and unwieldy answer indeed suggested that the US is so locked into a framework of rivalry with China that it can’t measure success in terms of cooperation.
Experts can hardly name any current avenues of cooperation with China. For its part, China appears uninterested in cooperation, including on controlling the number of nuclear weapons in the world.
Sherman, when speaking at Brookings, mentioned “issues that demand our collaboration, issues like climate, food security, counter-narcotics, global health, and more,” but then in the next sentence condemned China’s repressive and aggressive policies. It suggested just how far off those collaborations might be.
Asked later in the talk to detail what cooperation looks like, she mostly focused on stemming the import of fentanyl into the US from China. Yes, there were more than 100,000 deaths from opioid overdoses in America in 2022, and Chinese-sourced materials remain a key part of the supply chain for trafficked fentanyl, according to a 2022 Congressional Research Service report. But the comment could also be interpreted as a right-wing dog whistle. Trump had accused Xi of not doing enough to stop the drug’s passage into the US, and it has become a regular outlandish talking point of people like Steve Bannon.
Which is to say: It’s not exactly the kind of diplomatic flourish that’s going to lower the temperature at this moment.
By doing so, he’s normalizing a conversation around mental health.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), 53, has checked into Walter Reed Medical Center to receive in-patient treatment for clinical depression, according to a statement from his chief of staff, Adam Jentleson.
Fetterman’s decision to obtain treatment follows a stroke he experienced last May, which left him with auditory processing issues, and a brief hospitalization in early February after he experienced lightheadedness. Roughly one-third of stroke survivors experience depression and it can be related to “biochemical changes in the brain,” according to the American Heart Association. Fetterman, however, hasn’t disclosed any connection between his stroke and depression.
“While John has experienced depression off and on throughout his life, it only became severe in recent weeks,” the statement reads, adding that he went in on a “voluntary basis” and that he’s working to get the care he needs.
Fetterman’s open discussion of depression is significant, given how rarely lawmakers talk about their own mental health. His willingness to both disclose his medical condition and the treatment he’s sought is also a major step toward normalizing such conversations. While the discourse about mental health has become more transparent in recent years, experts say statements from high-profile figures like Fetterman play an important role in continuing to destigmatize these issues.
“When somebody like Sen. Fetterman is transparent about having a clinical mental health condition and about getting inpatient treatment, it’s hugely powerful,” says Pooja Lakshmin, a psychiatrist and clinical assistant professor at George Washington University School of Medicine. “Talking about it really helps. When you see something like this in the news, it gives folks permission to share that story with a friend, to bring it up in a text chat.”
This is as profoundly impactful as any bill a U.S. Senator could introduce. A sea change. As someone who is challenged by anxiety, depression, and ADHD, I am thankful for Senator Fetterman’s candor, normalizing seeking mental health care as an elected official. Refuah shlemah. https://t.co/GxmzktPuaB
— Rep. Noah Arbit (@NoahArbit) February 16, 2023
Fetterman joins lawmakers, including Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), and former Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA), in candidly addressing mental health. Smith previously spoke about her own experiences with depression in college and as a parent, emphasizing that treatment should be destigmatized and demystified.
Fetterman is one of the only senators in recent years to disclose that he’s undergoing treatment for depression. Previously, Missouri Sen. Thomas Eagleton revealed that he was hospitalized for clinical depression in the 1970s and was dropped from Democratic candidate George McGovern’s presidential ticket as a result, a decision McGovern said he regrets.
“Seeking help when you need it is a sign of strength, not weakness, something that John is demonstrating for all of us,” Smith wrote in a statement on Twitter.
Fetterman’s willingness to talk about treatment is notable, given the degree of vulnerability that involves, and the stigma that has surrounded mental health in the past. In a 2022 poll from CNN and the Kaiser Family Foundation, 35 percent of people said they were not too comfortable talking about their mental health with family and friends, and 14 percent of those respondents cited stigma as one of the reasons holding them back.
Fetterman’s statement, and others like it, are among those that have helped contribute to an ongoing cultural shift. A 2018 survey from the American Psychological Association found that Americans were becoming more open about mental health, with 87 percent of people agreeing that having a mental health disorder was not something to be ashamed of.
His decision to speak openly about mental health could also serve as a model for others, experts note.
“We know that men don’t always reach out when they need help,” says Katie Lee, a communications director with the advocacy group Mental Health America. “When you do have someone that looks like you reaching out, that gives you the push to reach out yourself.”
A 2019 study from the National Institute of Health previously found that men, in particular, have been less likely to seek out mental health treatment due to societal expectations. Fetterman — a politician famously known for projecting more of a tough-guy image with his tattoos and hoodies — could help dismantle stereotypes and preconceived notions that people may have.
Fetterman’s decision to address his mental health challenges also comes as many people across the country are grappling with getting care and treatment themselves following the immense strain of the pandemic. “As much as we live in a culture that wants to move on and pretend that everything’s fine, we’re still seeing the health impact of Covid, the mental health impact and the economic impact,” says Lakshmin. According to the World Health Organization, the pandemic has prompted a 25 percent uptick in depression and anxiety worldwide.
His willingness to talk about this issue could demonstrate to others dealing with their own experiences that lawmakers have an understanding of what they’re going through — and serve as a reminder of just how common depression is. Over 17 million adults, or 7 percent of the adult population, are affected by a major depressive disorder, according to the Depression and Bipolar Support Alliance.
“Talking about it now lets you know you’re not alone,” says Lee.
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A monk, a nun and a priest all suddenly die in a fire and end up before God… -
“You are all going to hell!” he announces. "As despite your dedictaed lives you still had sins you did not repent for! However, because of who you are I will allow you to choose your eternal punishment which is to select 3 different things I find most terrible that humans have experienced before under me each to happen to you constantly forever.
The monk says: “To be ill with a plague, to be a slave and to live in darkness.” He then teleports to hell.
The nun says: “To be nailed to crosses, to walk for years in boiling hot land and drown in a flood.” She then teleports to hell.
And the priest says: “To always have beer, weed and hookers.”
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How do you get a philosophy student off your porch? -
Thank him for the pizza
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Why was 10 scared? -
It was in the middle of 9/11?
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What is a good name for a gay Indian porn star? -
Ram Amandeep
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What’s long, green and smells like bacon? -
Kermit’s Fingers
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